* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IOKE CP012006 08/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 49 58 65 68 71 74 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 49 58 65 68 71 74 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 33 36 40 43 45 48 V (KT) G09R 21 21 22 23 22 24 30 32 36 37 42 43 51 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 6 6 5 2 4 7 8 11 12 10 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -4 -3 0 -2 -1 1 0 -1 2 5 SHEAR DIR 279 304 354 14 335 253 327 357 339 357 7 19 45 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 144 144 141 142 142 139 138 139 139 137 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 11 11 11 12 13 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 60 60 63 61 57 53 51 45 43 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 13 15 18 20 21 22 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 48 32 26 21 16 14 34 50 45 46 39 44 47 200 MB DIV 50 50 24 26 33 34 37 68 71 60 36 3 -19 LAND (KM) 986 932 874 815 823 785 759 843 908 920 864 854 891 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.5 12.0 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.4 15.8 16.8 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 151.4 152.4 153.5 154.8 156.0 157.2 158.6 160.6 162.2 163.4 164.8 165.8 166.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 12 10 5 9 9 8 8 9 7 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 24. 33. 40. 43. 46. 49. 51.