* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL932006 08/19/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 27 29 29 28 27 27 30 32 35 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 16 13 12 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 37 30 29 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 2 6 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 211 202 210 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.7 21.1 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 145 80 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 121 71 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 47 51 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -36 -29 -21 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -23 -12 -13 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 119 102 66 -14 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.3 30.0 29.7 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.1 80.2 80.5 81.2 81.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 19. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 7. 1. -4. -9. -11. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 10. 12. 15.