* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IOKE CP012006 08/19/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 42 52 60 66 73 78 83 84 87 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 42 52 60 66 73 78 83 84 87 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 34 38 43 48 55 61 68 74 V (KT) G01R 21 26 28 28 28 29 30 34 31 34 33 40 45 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 2 3 8 10 8 12 10 12 11 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 -3 -8 -2 0 0 -3 -6 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 314 29 82 195 265 329 2 43 55 79 97 121 149 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 146 146 144 142 144 143 142 141 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 61 61 60 55 50 50 49 46 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 17 19 20 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 27 31 27 30 28 47 47 40 35 18 5 -10 -5 200 MB DIV 88 69 60 80 99 102 57 33 7 14 10 5 17 LAND (KM) 923 869 847 892 947 1003 1082 1244 1404 1487 1539 1572 1653 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.1 11.5 11.7 11.8 12.5 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.4 15.3 15.9 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 155.1 156.2 157.5 159.3 160.5 162.3 164.7 167.6 170.0 171.4 172.6 173.3 174.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 15 10 12 13 13 10 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):256/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 12. 15. 14. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 17. 27. 35. 41. 48. 53. 58. 59. 62.