* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL932006 08/19/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 27 28 27 26 24 23 24 26 28 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 23 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 20 16 13 14 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 37 33 32 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 0 5 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 209 204 214 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.6 13.0 7.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 143 64 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 118 61 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 9 8 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 52 53 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -44 -47 -31 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -26 -18 -14 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 104 64 28 -43 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.2 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.7 81.1 81.7 82.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 794 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 8. 10. 10. 7. -0. -6. -11. -14. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 6. 8.