* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IOKE CP012006 08/19/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 45 59 66 74 78 81 83 86 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 45 59 66 74 78 81 83 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 32 39 49 58 67 75 82 V (KT) G05R 18 22 24 27 28 25 33 36 35 35 31 31 33 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 5 4 3 3 8 12 12 9 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -3 -5 -2 3 -7 -3 -6 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 236 228 221 217 253 70 87 63 95 99 112 109 117 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 146 147 147 145 145 145 143 143 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 68 68 68 64 61 59 54 49 51 53 52 51 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 12 12 12 16 15 16 16 17 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 14 24 27 20 19 32 43 30 25 7 -12 -28 -32 200 MB DIV 75 77 90 75 68 64 41 27 23 22 15 17 18 LAND (KM) 1022 984 964 924 937 1118 1221 1323 1491 1631 1711 1767 1802 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.1 10.4 11.0 11.3 11.3 12.2 13.0 13.6 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 155.9 156.7 157.4 158.3 159.4 162.5 165.1 168.0 170.8 172.6 173.9 174.8 175.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 11 13 14 14 15 11 8 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):256/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 9. 9. 10. 10. 12. 10. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 20. 34. 41. 49. 53. 56. 58. 61.