* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL932006 08/19/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 28 31 31 30 28 27 30 32 34 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 19 17 14 13 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 40 32 33 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 2 6 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 210 204 215 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 150 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 126 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 50 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 3 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -38 -34 -18 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -21 -12 -22 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 104 117 37 -27 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.2 80.1 80.8 81.5 81.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 6. 8. 10. 10. 6. -2. -8. -14. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 10. 12. 14.