* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP982006 08/19/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 31 37 42 49 55 63 70 73 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 31 37 42 49 55 63 70 73 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 24 26 29 V (KT) G08R 18 18 20 18 21 24 22 23 28 33 42 49 50 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 11 9 14 12 8 10 5 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -5 -4 -4 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 225 233 231 243 241 215 192 209 210 211 230 218 211 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 152 150 149 151 154 156 157 159 159 156 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 71 70 71 67 69 69 68 65 63 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 12 15 18 21 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -21 -16 -19 -30 -20 -15 -7 5 6 4 -4 -9 200 MB DIV 61 59 54 52 59 69 76 54 27 6 64 49 66 LAND (KM) 732 781 741 711 723 723 739 776 812 845 884 1014 1021 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 9.1 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.1 11.9 13.1 13.8 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.2 96.2 97.2 98.6 99.7 100.6 101.7 103.2 105.3 107.6 110.1 112.5 114.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 13 13 8 5 6 10 12 13 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):291/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 37. 42. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 21. 25. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 17. 22. 30. 35. 43. 50. 53.