* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IOKE CP012006 08/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 122 123 120 115 102 91 83 77 75 74 70 68 V (KT) LAND 115 122 123 120 115 102 91 83 77 75 74 70 68 V (KT) LGE mod 115 123 123 120 115 106 98 91 86 83 81 80 77 V (KT) G01R 22 25 27 25 25 30 30 29 26 28 28 29 33 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 13 14 12 11 7 3 3 8 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 3 3 2 1 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 310 359 65 92 109 98 114 153 178 78 102 88 115 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 142 141 140 141 141 142 142 143 141 143 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 700-500 MB RH 55 53 50 50 52 50 48 48 49 50 50 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 13 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 25 16 9 2 -2 -12 -25 -29 -19 -23 -23 -28 -6 200 MB DIV 76 57 21 -1 23 23 9 16 5 32 23 11 6 LAND (KM) 1321 1312 1340 1371 1389 1416 1489 1561 1634 1673 1711 1761 1822 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.1 16.0 16.6 17.4 18.1 18.8 19.7 19.8 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 167.6 168.3 169.3 170.2 170.8 171.7 172.8 173.9 174.9 175.5 176.1 176.6 177.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 9 7 5 7 6 5 5 4 2 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):314/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -40. -44. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 11. 16. 17. 16. 10. 5. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 8. 5. -0. -13. -24. -32. -38. -39. -41. -45. -47.