* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ILEANA EP102006 08/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 50 56 61 70 77 78 76 74 71 67 61 V (KT) LAND 40 45 50 56 61 70 77 78 76 74 71 67 61 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 53 59 65 76 82 82 79 74 68 63 57 V (KT) G02R 50 38 43 37 35 39 36 39 35 37 38 38 35 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 6 5 10 11 5 7 3 3 1 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 1 0 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 126 117 99 53 10 316 291 312 213 230 79 145 212 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.3 26.6 26.1 25.6 25.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 160 158 158 154 145 136 128 122 117 111 107 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 12 13 10 10 8 8 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 74 75 74 72 70 70 67 61 57 56 52 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 18 18 20 21 20 20 20 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 16 25 31 37 49 32 23 25 29 22 11 200 MB DIV 66 34 27 55 61 41 28 -2 -22 -9 -12 -7 -24 LAND (KM) 476 489 508 550 596 656 686 759 802 861 917 1007 1008 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.4 16.2 17.4 18.3 19.0 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.6 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 105.3 106.7 108.1 109.5 112.3 114.4 116.2 117.6 118.7 119.8 121.1 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 16 13 10 8 6 6 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 21. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 21. 30. 37. 38. 36. 34. 31. 27. 21.