* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN CP922006 08/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 24 24 24 26 28 28 30 31 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 24 24 24 26 28 28 30 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 17 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 29 24 24 23 22 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 2 1 4 6 11 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 303 174 75 58 67 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 129 128 127 125 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 51 51 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -5 -13 -15 -14 -16 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 10 -15 -4 9 9 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1139 1098 1028 951 889 742 591 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.8 15.4 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.5 145.7 146.1 146.8 147.3 148.7 150.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 6 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):337/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 12.