* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DEBBY AL052006 08/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 40 45 51 56 62 66 69 71 74 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 40 45 51 56 62 66 69 71 74 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 35 36 38 40 45 52 62 71 77 81 V (KT) G03R 21 22 21 22 24 26 30 30 29 29 28 27 23 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 9 8 4 4 9 12 18 20 21 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 11 9 1 -2 -1 -3 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 254 239 220 204 210 218 88 92 63 63 82 116 96 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.3 26.3 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.2 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 139 140 137 129 118 118 119 123 127 130 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 140 141 137 126 114 113 114 117 118 121 120 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 62 59 56 54 49 45 41 40 39 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 13 12 12 13 12 11 11 12 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 62 49 48 57 50 27 24 11 19 15 8 -4 -13 200 MB DIV 44 32 20 17 29 18 -5 7 -19 -29 15 -17 -18 LAND (KM) 612 725 811 925 1054 1322 1612 1923 2200 1999 1861 1712 1613 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.3 12.7 13.6 14.4 15.7 17.1 18.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.0 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 22.5 23.7 24.7 26.0 27.2 29.7 32.3 35.2 38.2 41.3 43.6 45.8 47.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 13 15 14 14 14 15 15 13 10 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 9. 8. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 21. 26. 32. 36. 39. 41. 44.