* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IOKE CP012006 08/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 121 121 117 112 98 88 80 76 75 73 70 66 V (KT) LAND 115 121 121 117 112 98 88 80 76 75 73 70 66 V (KT) LGE mod 115 122 122 118 114 105 97 92 88 87 83 85 87 V (KT) G06R 29 30 28 29 29 29 27 29 27 26 26 25 21 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 14 16 16 14 12 11 5 4 4 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 1 1 2 0 0 -3 -5 -2 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 352 17 53 68 82 94 100 101 108 90 88 95 149 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 144 142 142 141 141 143 145 147 158 150 151 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 14 14 15 700-500 MB RH 52 49 49 49 49 48 47 46 47 45 44 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 15 16 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -13 -13 -16 -12 -20 -30 -32 -31 -40 -52 -50 -51 200 MB DIV 29 39 19 6 26 12 -2 -10 -12 0 15 -10 -13 LAND (KM) 1191 1188 1239 1253 1304 1416 1518 1669 1831 2005 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.5 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 166.7 167.4 168.5 169.3 170.2 171.7 173.0 174.7 176.5 178.4 ***** ***** ***** STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 10 9 7 7 8 10 10 1702 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):314/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -22. -29. -34. -39. -41. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -3. 1. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 11. 16. 17. 16. 10. 5. 1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -0. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 2. -3. -17. -27. -35. -39. -40. -42. -45. -49.