* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ILEANA EP102006 08/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 56 65 72 78 75 73 69 62 53 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 56 65 72 78 75 73 69 62 53 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 50 53 56 61 65 69 71 69 65 60 55 V (KT) G06R 28 26 29 31 30 41 46 45 42 41 39 37 34 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 5 7 4 7 11 2 9 18 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 0 4 0 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 260 262 249 249 231 304 308 318 298 276 294 293 312 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.1 27.3 26.7 26.3 25.7 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 159 159 158 157 154 145 137 129 123 119 111 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -52.7 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 75 74 76 74 74 73 67 64 61 60 59 61 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 18 18 21 22 25 23 23 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 24 9 15 18 18 21 26 35 33 31 30 29 19 200 MB DIV 83 67 63 71 82 35 37 34 14 -1 7 -11 -16 LAND (KM) 718 681 651 612 606 607 647 615 657 722 762 725 760 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.3 14.1 15.8 17.3 18.5 19.5 19.8 20.0 20.8 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 103.7 104.9 105.8 107.0 109.3 111.7 113.6 115.2 116.8 117.6 117.9 119.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 13 13 14 14 12 10 9 6 3 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):284/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 24. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 10. 9. 8. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 25. 32. 38. 35. 33. 29. 22. 13.