* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL972006 08/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 22 25 29 33 35 38 41 44 47 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 22 25 29 33 35 38 41 44 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 16 17 15 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 203 205 218 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 149 151 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 157 165 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 63 60 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -35 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 54 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1237 1270 1168 979 786 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.9 9.1 9.0 8.5 7.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.8 40.6 41.7 43.5 45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 15 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 34. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 9. 13. 15. 18. 21. 24. 27.