* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HECTOR EP092006 08/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 32 30 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 38 34 32 32 31 25 23 21 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 33 31 39 40 37 41 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -10 -4 -5 -6 -3 1 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 110 110 115 110 109 102 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.5 23.9 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 87 89 90 92 97 102 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 52 50 46 43 42 40 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 15 15 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -25 -27 -18 -20 -10 -10 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 21 17 4 4 -8 -11 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1946 1944 1979 1983 1914 1703 1467 1198 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.6 22.7 22.9 23.0 22.5 22.4 22.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.6 134.8 135.4 136.0 136.7 138.7 141.0 143.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 6 7 10 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):333/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -17. -25. -32. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -12. -17. -18. -17. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -12. -26. -42. -59. -73. -82. -91. -97.-101.