* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL972006 08/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 34 41 50 56 62 68 74 78 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 34 41 50 56 62 68 74 78 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 24 26 30 34 39 47 58 V (KT) G09R 29 28 35 31 27 29 27 31 32 34 31 32 33 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 13 14 21 14 15 11 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 7 6 2 -6 -7 -8 -4 -2 -4 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 214 172 187 210 213 188 194 183 175 161 78 89 68 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 147 147 150 152 150 146 145 145 144 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 144 155 156 157 155 149 146 144 145 139 141 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 13 12 13 14 14 700-500 MB RH 68 65 61 60 62 60 55 54 52 52 52 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 15 15 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -18 -11 -7 2 11 16 13 18 3 -8 -28 -23 200 MB DIV 70 63 40 21 22 -9 -5 -2 24 26 13 28 48 LAND (KM) 1241 1262 1150 1026 895 748 709 751 880 755 717 630 490 LAT (DEG N) 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.8 12.0 13.6 15.1 16.4 17.5 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 41.1 42.5 44.1 45.7 48.0 49.7 51.5 53.2 55.6 57.7 59.7 61.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 15 16 14 10 9 11 12 14 11 12 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):274/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 22. 28. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 14. 22. 30. 36. 42. 48. 54. 59.