* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ILEANA EP102006 08/23/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 87 92 93 92 85 76 65 57 48 39 29 V (KT) LAND 75 82 87 92 93 92 85 76 65 57 48 39 29 V (KT) LGE mod 75 84 90 94 96 92 83 73 64 56 50 46 41 V (KT) G00R 34 30 32 34 31 28 27 30 25 23 22 20 20 SHEAR (KT) 7 3 4 3 5 6 4 6 7 4 5 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 0 -1 0 2 0 2 -1 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 188 193 187 201 255 350 332 312 306 293 288 187 239 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.3 27.8 26.8 25.8 25.1 24.8 24.3 24.0 23.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 154 149 143 132 121 112 108 103 99 97 95 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 10 10 8 7 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 69 65 61 56 54 49 47 43 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 19 17 18 16 16 14 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 21 28 37 39 25 11 1 -1 -11 -15 -16 -3 -8 200 MB DIV 89 52 28 36 22 10 -4 -26 -10 -7 -6 1 -25 LAND (KM) 521 578 571 543 531 618 671 753 811 817 850 940 1027 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 17.0 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.6 21.8 22.3 22.5 22.4 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.9 111.3 112.5 113.5 115.7 117.4 118.8 119.7 120.4 121.1 122.2 123.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 13 12 10 8 6 3 4 3 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -5. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -3. -3. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 18. 17. 10. 1. -10. -18. -27. -36. -46.