* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IOKE CP012006 08/23/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 81 75 70 67 65 62 60 61 57 53 52 54 V (KT) LAND 90 81 75 70 67 65 62 60 61 57 53 52 54 V (KT) LGE mod 90 82 77 75 73 71 70 70 67 69 71 73 DIS V (KT) G06R 27 28 23 23 24 25 24 24 24 20 20 18 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 14 18 18 15 9 6 9 8 8 10 8 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 -5 -4 -7 -9 -9 N/A SHEAR DIR 56 49 79 103 122 166 195 200 199 195 191 209 N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 141 141 143 145 146 155 146 147 149 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 14 14 15 N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 42 41 42 45 45 43 43 44 49 52 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 -9 -26 -27 -35 -42 -55 -54 -62 -53 -59 N/A 200 MB DIV 44 42 6 -18 9 -15 -11 -11 21 5 12 -6 N/A LAND (KM) 1270 1332 1408 1465 1516 1638 1798 1993 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.3 20.9 21.2 20.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.6 171.2 172.0 172.7 173.4 174.9 176.7 178.8 ***** ***** ***** ***** N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 8 1681 9 7 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):309/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -12. -9. -7. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -20. -23. -25. -28. -30. -29. -33. -37. -38. -36.