* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DEBBY AL052006 08/23/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 48 56 62 70 75 77 78 79 80 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 48 56 62 70 75 77 78 79 80 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 41 43 47 53 64 74 82 85 86 85 V (KT) G08R 27 28 29 28 28 31 30 30 30 29 28 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 5 4 3 3 9 12 15 20 23 26 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 8 7 5 3 -4 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 211 230 208 235 272 33 27 27 27 47 45 58 49 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 125 119 117 118 120 124 128 132 135 141 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 133 123 116 112 113 113 118 118 123 123 128 121 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 700-500 MB RH 56 54 52 52 52 47 45 40 39 38 40 43 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 79 67 57 62 64 46 43 28 20 -1 -21 -39 -36 200 MB DIV 36 24 16 0 13 7 3 8 12 4 -17 8 44 LAND (KM) 1161 1331 1495 1659 1793 2078 2137 2036 1996 1921 1753 1585 1531 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.2 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.2 21.8 22.2 23.0 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 28.2 29.8 31.3 32.8 34.1 36.7 39.5 42.2 44.5 47.1 49.3 51.2 52.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 15 13 15 13 14 11 12 9 10 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 13. 21. 27. 35. 40. 42. 43. 44. 45.