* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERNESTO AL062006 08/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 62 67 68 70 69 78 79 81 79 83 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 62 67 56 49 48 57 58 60 46 42 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 56 59 63 49 43 43 48 52 53 43 41 V (KT) G00R 27 34 31 29 25 32 35 36 43 45 47 37 49 SHEAR (KT) 16 13 9 5 3 15 7 12 5 13 7 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 7 4 3 2 4 2 -1 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 83 91 114 185 142 135 136 192 178 173 161 146 67 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 29.1 29.4 15.3 20.1 23.7 30.1 20.3 20.1 14.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 144 153 158 70 80 96 170 79 77 68 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 138 146 150 68 75 88 150 72 71 65 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -52.7 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 13 13 13 15 14 16 15 16 13 13 700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 68 66 61 59 56 56 57 59 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 13 14 13 16 16 19 20 23 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 38 50 49 48 36 -21 -22 -44 -29 -35 18 34 63 200 MB DIV 37 63 72 105 97 26 13 11 21 30 18 34 61 LAND (KM) 167 174 118 92 100 -22 16 55 115 113 38 -30 47 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.7 18.5 20.4 22.4 23.5 24.6 25.8 27.0 28.5 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 72.2 73.2 74.2 75.1 75.5 76.8 78.6 80.6 82.1 82.8 82.8 82.2 80.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 13 11 10 7 7 6 10 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):316/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. 3. 1. -1. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 18. 20. 19. 28. 29. 31. 29. 33.