* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ILEANA EP102006 08/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 35 32 26 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 25 23 20 21 20 16 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 8 6 8 12 14 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 2 1 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 268 255 278 309 345 336 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.5 22.2 22.2 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 93 89 85 81 81 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 43 40 39 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 14 12 11 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -27 -33 -38 -41 -36 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -15 -26 -14 -7 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 683 708 737 772 802 892 953 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.3 23.6 23.9 24.1 23.9 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.4 120.0 120.7 121.4 121.9 122.8 123.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 6 5 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):311/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -20. -24. -26. -28. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -21. -36. -49. -59. -67. -72. -78. -82. -85.