* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902006 08/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 22 23 23 23 25 25 25 27 29 31 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 22 23 23 23 25 25 25 27 29 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 17 15 18 17 17 10 11 19 19 21 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 18 17 13 10 9 17 18 13 15 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 0 -2 -1 -7 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 200 200 210 218 248 267 287 254 266 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 144 149 148 150 154 147 145 148 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 11 12 9 11 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 71 69 67 68 67 64 67 68 75 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 46 53 42 35 25 -3 -20 -34 -24 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 65 64 58 36 22 -7 13 20 42 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 350 382 341 354 367 405 566 679 662 664 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.3 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.1 10.6 10.0 10.3 10.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.6 91.1 91.1 92.1 92.7 93.7 96.1 99.2 99.7 100.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 2 6 8 5 7 18 8 3 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 42. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 7. 9. 11.