* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DEBBY AL052006 08/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 49 51 51 50 50 51 51 50 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 49 51 51 50 50 51 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 28 27 27 25 28 37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 33 18 14 14 19 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 -2 1 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 16 21 353 8 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.3 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 138 133 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 129 125 127 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 11 10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 41 45 45 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 8 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -69 -40 6 40 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -22 23 79 73 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2088 2066 1921 1738 1554 916 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 28.1 29.7 31.4 33.2 41.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.5 49.1 48.8 48.2 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 18 28 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):328/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 8. 2. -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 24. 26. 26. 25. 25. 26. 26. 25.