* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902006 08/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 26 28 32 34 36 40 44 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 26 28 32 34 36 40 44 48 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 17 14 19 17 18 14 17 21 23 23 22 24 28 SHEAR (KT) 13 18 17 16 9 7 10 14 13 12 6 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 1 -2 -1 -3 -1 1 -1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 207 188 195 219 216 220 239 271 251 271 235 253 263 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 148 146 148 153 157 150 149 152 154 156 155 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 10 10 12 9 12 10 11 11 12 13 14 700-500 MB RH 74 69 69 67 69 69 67 70 72 76 77 77 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 8 7 7 8 10 11 11 12 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR 52 41 50 31 32 27 9 -4 -5 2 4 2 20 200 MB DIV 77 58 65 54 33 36 19 39 53 74 94 82 75 LAND (KM) 357 348 317 460 396 443 489 677 635 583 606 492 414 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 10.8 11.1 10.1 10.8 11.3 11.3 10.7 11.2 11.8 12.1 13.7 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 92.2 91.5 91.6 92.7 92.8 94.7 96.3 101.2 101.3 101.6 102.7 103.9 105.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 3 7 6 5 10 18 12 4 4 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 40. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 9. 11. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 12. 14. 16. 20. 24. 28.