* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DEBBY AL052006 08/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 46 49 50 51 51 52 53 54 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 46 49 50 51 51 52 53 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 34 33 31 29 30 41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 32 22 13 11 19 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 2 1 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 3 10 2 8 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.4 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 138 133 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 128 125 122 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 11 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 43 47 49 45 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 13 11 11 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -71 -34 18 61 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -9 23 78 76 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2079 2075 1944 1756 1574 1108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.1 29.5 31.2 33.0 38.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.3 49.0 49.1 48.3 45.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 16 18 22 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):328/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 8. 3. -1. -4. -6. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. 27. 28. 29.