* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ILEANA EP102006 08/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 38 35 32 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 30 30 24 23 21 16 14 11 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 9 11 7 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 2 3 2 0 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 267 270 267 290 326 333 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.7 22.4 22.2 22.1 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 93 91 87 84 81 80 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 44 43 41 40 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 15 13 12 9 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -7 -17 -21 -23 -27 -36 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -9 -17 -12 -14 1 4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 762 834 873 909 932 1004 1021 1124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 22.8 22.9 23.2 23.5 23.8 24.0 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.2 121.8 122.5 123.0 124.0 124.3 125.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 6 5 5 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):311/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -16. -21. -25. -26. -28. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -21. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -21. -34. -49. -60. -67. -71. -77. -81. -83.