* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP902006 08/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 23 23 24 25 27 26 27 30 32 33 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 23 23 24 25 27 26 27 30 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 16 18 17 18 18 13 18 20 19 21 23 21 22 SHEAR (KT) 11 17 18 14 13 8 10 11 11 17 10 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -1 -3 2 -1 0 0 -1 5 3 3 SHEAR DIR 192 194 199 197 205 245 256 279 249 266 221 239 225 SST (C) 28.7 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 145 145 148 150 154 151 153 154 152 158 156 160 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.3 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 10 11 12 9 12 10 12 10 13 12 15 700-500 MB RH 77 71 69 67 68 65 65 68 68 75 75 78 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 9 9 8 7 8 8 9 7 8 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 30 28 30 34 27 17 8 0 -14 -12 -13 -6 -7 200 MB DIV 60 60 75 61 32 9 -8 4 18 55 97 86 96 LAND (KM) 283 407 410 361 368 429 515 521 551 530 490 444 360 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 10.3 10.4 10.9 11.2 11.3 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.5 13.3 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.7 92.2 92.2 93.2 94.5 96.7 97.7 100.2 100.3 101.1 101.8 102.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 6 4 6 7 13 5 7 8 3 7 4 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 31. 36. 41. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13.