* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP992006 08/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 25 28 32 36 37 39 41 42 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 25 28 32 36 37 39 41 42 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 18 19 21 24 V (KT) G09R 24 19 15 16 18 16 15 18 17 16 17 13 12 SHEAR (KT) 20 20 21 17 16 11 9 8 10 12 9 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 3 3 2 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 235 233 235 239 234 254 260 280 269 298 308 308 321 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 151 151 153 156 157 155 153 153 150 148 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 12 13 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 69 70 72 67 68 68 66 63 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -11 -14 -15 -6 4 -4 -5 -9 0 8 9 23 200 MB DIV 59 42 38 45 58 41 30 3 6 -8 0 -11 25 LAND (KM) 601 575 587 609 623 676 777 882 883 875 864 913 932 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.3 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 105.4 106.0 106.7 107.3 108.1 109.3 110.5 112.0 112.8 113.4 114.2 115.2 115.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 6 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):316/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 24. 32. 38. 42. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -17. -17. -18. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -0. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 17. 19. 21. 22.