* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERNESTO AL062006 08/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 44 50 58 58 57 50 40 29 19 V (KT) LAND 40 36 33 31 29 35 43 34 29 29 29 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 40 36 33 31 29 32 35 31 28 28 29 30 30 V (KT) G00R 25 31 25 27 26 35 36 41 37 24 25 21 9 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 11 12 9 7 11 19 37 46 56 51 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 2 3 9 5 0 -2 -8 -13 -10 SHEAR DIR 289 270 284 301 296 326 32 64 66 72 62 57 64 SST (C) 29.6 9.7 13.6 17.5 21.4 29.2 23.8 19.5 15.3 11.1 6.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 64 66 71 84 156 98 79 69 67 64 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 63 64 67 76 139 87 72 65 65 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -52.6 -53.0 -54.3 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 17 16 15 15 15 13 12 5 4 1 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 60 58 60 62 64 66 67 61 55 54 53 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 16 17 16 21 25 27 25 21 17 12 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -57 -51 -18 -7 12 54 48 57 49 48 22 -3 200 MB DIV -3 5 23 41 36 46 53 65 91 94 86 46 24 LAND (KM) 63 -21 -36 -38 -81 56 57 -101 -171 -239 -514 -678 -729 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.4 26.3 27.0 27.7 30.0 32.4 34.9 37.2 39.4 42.4 44.9 46.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 81.0 81.5 81.8 81.6 80.7 79.5 78.5 77.8 78.1 79.7 79.8 78.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 7 9 13 13 13 10 16 13 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 45 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):332/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -4. -5. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 10. 8. 4. 0. -4. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 18. 18. 17. 10. -0. -11. -21.