* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP112006 08/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 108 113 117 120 120 119 114 112 109 106 99 87 V (KT) LAND 100 108 113 117 120 120 119 114 112 109 106 99 87 V (KT) LGE mod 100 109 114 116 117 114 108 101 94 85 76 68 61 V (KT) G04R 30 30 28 32 33 30 30 34 31 30 33 38 36 SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 4 3 5 10 6 5 7 6 1 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 4 2 0 -1 -1 -4 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 160 306 8 53 332 275 280 41 359 13 319 31 85 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.2 27.8 26.6 26.0 25.7 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 165 163 160 158 160 158 141 127 120 118 117 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -51.4 -52.0 -51.1 -51.6 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 13 14 12 12 11 11 9 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 75 77 79 80 75 75 71 68 67 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 13 15 18 17 20 23 26 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR -8 0 0 1 17 33 43 45 69 55 76 84 77 200 MB DIV 71 55 64 93 121 95 151 104 107 45 78 26 37 LAND (KM) 242 225 246 270 316 391 467 178 133 157 131 106 109 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.6 15.8 16.2 17.1 18.2 21.3 22.8 23.4 23.8 24.3 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.2 101.2 102.5 103.9 105.4 107.8 109.5 109.8 111.5 112.6 113.0 113.2 113.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 11 12 14 8 4 3 4 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 2. 3. 2. -2. -5. -9. -15. -22. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 12. 16. 20. 24. 25. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 13. 17. 20. 20. 19. 14. 12. 9. 6. -1. -13.