* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP112006 08/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 108 112 114 114 111 109 106 100 91 83 74 64 V (KT) LAND 100 108 112 114 114 111 109 106 100 91 83 74 64 V (KT) LGE mod 100 109 114 116 117 114 111 105 94 81 70 60 53 V (KT) G05R 31 36 28 37 30 36 32 32 25 26 19 18 18 SHEAR (KT) 4 1 2 4 4 4 8 6 11 6 5 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 1 4 4 2 4 0 -2 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 198 191 293 338 317 8 304 300 325 329 308 333 330 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.8 28.0 29.8 28.7 26.7 25.9 25.1 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 166 164 146 164 152 130 120 112 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 11 14 16 14 15 11 10 8 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 69 73 72 69 71 72 70 70 69 69 66 64 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 9 10 12 12 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -3 4 1 -6 -12 12 37 22 18 23 31 17 23 200 MB DIV 55 25 34 40 57 72 73 35 26 -13 -4 -1 -14 LAND (KM) 245 224 198 198 182 176 292 153 259 336 345 463 600 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.6 18.1 20.2 21.6 22.3 22.1 22.6 22.5 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 99.8 100.7 101.6 102.6 103.7 106.0 108.5 110.5 112.7 113.8 114.7 116.1 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 16 13 12 8 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -17. -24. -30. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 14. 14. 11. 9. 6. -0. -9. -17. -26. -36.