* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KRISTY EP122006 08/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 39 38 36 32 31 29 30 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 35 39 38 36 32 31 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 27 26 26 25 DIS V (KT) G05R 20 22 24 20 19 18 21 19 19 14 17 14 0 SHEAR (KT) 4 5 8 8 8 6 12 10 15 13 19 17 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 1 0 -1 -2 -2 1 -4 -2 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 194 274 309 319 309 276 297 299 292 299 296 304 N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.0 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 148 147 143 138 133 132 132 130 137 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 60 60 55 55 49 51 51 51 56 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 9 11 9 8 6 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 43 48 55 56 49 49 31 43 31 23 41 N/A 200 MB DIV 46 51 47 50 42 31 15 11 2 17 34 33 N/A LAND (KM) 862 892 980 1024 1037 1106 1134 1259 1290 1376 1454 1405 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.2 16.1 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.3 116.1 116.6 116.9 118.5 119.6 121.2 121.7 122.6 123.3 122.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 4 5 8 7 4 3 5 3 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 13. 11. 7. 6. 4. 5.