* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * JOHN EP112006 08/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 107 110 111 109 103 104 108 108 106 96 89 77 V (KT) LAND 100 107 110 111 109 103 104 108 108 98 72 47 39 V (KT) LGE mod 100 109 114 116 116 95 79 78 77 66 60 41 27 V (KT) G07R 27 31 28 31 31 42 41 40 38 39 35 32 24 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 14 11 3 4 5 4 4 5 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 0 4 9 7 0 -4 -4 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 153 152 140 151 173 194 182 138 251 120 29 66 38 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.9 28.7 18.4 30.1 29.5 28.3 27.6 9.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 165 152 62 167 161 147 140 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -51.3 -52.1 -51.1 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 13 16 14 18 13 14 11 11 7 8 700-500 MB RH 73 75 74 73 75 73 69 70 69 69 66 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 6 10 11 16 17 18 17 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -21 -7 7 30 36 56 57 58 33 15 4 9 200 MB DIV 57 35 50 77 80 68 81 35 54 16 52 31 35 LAND (KM) 245 234 217 212 160 122 229 78 25 0 -34 -10 19 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.1 17.0 18.6 20.4 22.3 24.0 25.1 26.9 27.8 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 99.8 100.7 101.7 103.0 104.0 105.8 107.9 109.6 111.3 112.1 112.9 114.1 114.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 13 12 13 12 13 8 9 8 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):299/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 3. 3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -18. -28. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. 0. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 4. 6. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 11. 9. 4. 4. 8. 8. 6. -4. -11. -23.