* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ERNESTO AL062006 08/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 37 37 41 43 40 35 26 21 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 40 33 31 29 28 34 36 29 28 29 30 30 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 31 29 28 31 32 29 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) G08R 55 40 37 29 32 41 43 29 20 19 23 15 18 SHEAR (KT) 10 5 8 11 8 8 14 32 41 43 43 35 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 4 2 3 6 9 0 4 -6 -8 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 297 293 305 340 355 0 22 63 55 53 49 41 26 SST (C) 13.4 15.0 16.6 18.3 19.9 27.0 17.3 15.7 14.0 12.4 21.3 14.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 67 69 71 74 78 126 74 71 68 67 83 67 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 65 66 67 69 72 112 70 67 65 65 73 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -52.4 -53.6 -55.3 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 17 16 15 16 16 12 10 3 3 0 2 0 3 700-500 MB RH 59 54 59 62 62 63 64 58 53 49 56 57 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 20 20 19 20 25 26 24 20 18 16 12 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -57 -39 -4 26 51 61 63 81 80 85 71 51 200 MB DIV -5 13 34 42 37 63 60 51 90 61 61 56 41 LAND (KM) 0 -51 -59 -39 -71 64 0 -214 -320 -567 -752 -860 **** LAT (DEG N) 25.3 26.2 27.1 27.9 28.8 30.9 33.7 36.7 38.8 41.3 43.4 45.1 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 81.1 81.7 82.0 81.8 80.7 79.0 78.3 79.1 81.2 82.2 82.6 84.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 9 10 14 15 14 12 14 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):332/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 5. 2. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 4. 2. -0. -3. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -3. 1. 3. 0. -5. -14. -19. -24. -29.