* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KRISTY EP122006 08/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 38 42 46 49 50 50 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 38 42 46 49 50 50 52 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 25 24 31 29 28 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 13 14 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 2 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 328 293 281 270 260 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 159 161 158 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 73 71 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 52 43 62 60 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 67 87 93 94 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 894 905 958 904 839 811 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.4 114.6 113.9 112.8 111.8 111.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 10 10 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 32. 37. 41. 45. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 25. 27. 28.