* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KRISTY EP122006 09/01/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 56 53 48 42 35 29 24 20 18 17 V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 56 53 48 42 35 29 24 20 18 17 V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 55 53 50 46 43 40 38 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 20 18 16 16 16 17 17 13 14 11 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 17 12 7 11 20 17 18 26 24 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -3 5 6 -1 6 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 328 341 332 293 323 315 291 278 278 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.5 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 124 123 123 125 131 133 136 135 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 57 59 58 58 60 55 56 53 54 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 64 55 44 38 46 34 31 42 48 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 50 41 33 21 16 14 -6 16 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 836 869 892 899 891 840 855 867 894 964 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.2 19.1 19.1 19.2 19.3 18.8 18.4 18.1 17.6 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.2 118.4 118.5 118.5 117.9 117.5 117.1 117.1 117.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 1 1 2 3 3 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):319/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -25. -31. -36. -40. -42. -43.