* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL982006 09/02/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 35 48 62 77 86 97 100 104 108 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 35 48 62 77 86 97 100 104 108 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 28 33 39 48 60 71 81 90 V (KT) G02R 25 27 27 21 23 29 32 36 37 38 32 41 46 SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 12 11 8 6 5 15 9 13 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -4 -7 -8 -6 -1 0 0 6 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 262 211 200 239 258 259 278 103 40 32 333 56 35 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 147 145 142 143 140 134 130 129 135 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 153 155 148 139 133 139 137 126 118 118 130 139 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 13 11 13 700-500 MB RH 74 70 67 66 67 65 66 64 63 62 64 60 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 15 17 19 22 25 25 28 26 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 109 113 111 86 94 89 51 36 70 101 111 139 128 200 MB DIV 112 104 78 88 128 107 73 46 54 123 87 52 55 LAND (KM) 1500 1507 1445 1260 1274 1254 1413 1595 1660 1682 1762 1914 1796 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.0 11.6 11.4 11.9 12.3 13.6 15.7 17.5 18.5 19.5 21.7 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.2 39.3 40.5 42.5 42.7 43.5 42.7 42.7 44.2 45.5 45.8 47.1 49.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 16 11 6 3 9 12 10 6 7 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 7. 8. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 15. 28. 42. 57. 66. 77. 80. 84. 88.