* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL902006 09/02/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 37 50 65 79 92 103 106 109 109 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 31 37 50 65 79 92 103 106 109 109 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 24 27 30 36 47 62 75 83 86 V (KT) G05R 19 24 24 23 25 31 30 39 44 44 44 48 44 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 13 13 10 2 9 8 6 15 5 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -6 -4 -4 0 -4 1 1 2 11 22 SHEAR DIR 259 233 207 242 254 241 60 111 10 332 291 298 302 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 146 155 150 143 144 145 143 137 136 134 137 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 161 178 157 136 140 140 139 128 127 122 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -52.9 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 13 15 14 14 14 15 14 15 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 67 70 69 66 59 58 57 59 61 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 15 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 129 129 90 78 67 46 38 40 54 66 80 74 94 200 MB DIV 110 114 93 88 116 115 53 25 32 45 34 -12 46 LAND (KM) 1705 1642 1534 1257 1254 1305 1350 1324 1296 1234 1226 1287 1438 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.0 11.2 12.0 13.5 14.6 15.1 15.2 15.4 16.2 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 34.3 35.8 39.2 42.2 42.3 42.5 43.6 45.3 46.6 48.0 48.6 49.0 49.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 24 31 15 3 7 8 10 5 6 2 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):276/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 378 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -2. -2. -0. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 10. 9. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 30. 45. 59. 72. 83. 86. 89. 89.