* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KRISTY EP122006 09/02/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 37 36 33 28 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 37 36 33 28 23 19 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 33 32 29 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 24 19 19 19 20 16 11 11 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 14 16 20 29 25 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -2 -1 0 -2 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 302 301 290 287 286 263 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.5 27.0 27.6 28.0 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 120 124 128 133 138 141 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 61 62 63 63 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 33 53 74 73 72 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 45 55 65 64 19 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 723 717 692 667 671 624 674 737 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.2 20.0 19.8 19.3 18.7 18.2 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.2 116.6 115.9 115.2 114.0 114.1 115.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 7 5 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -26. -27. -27.