* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP112006 09/04/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 25 22 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 21 21 23 23 14 9 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 16 18 16 11 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 67 83 80 80 68 106 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 9.8 10.4 11.1 11.8 12.4 13.8 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 60 59 59 58 57 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 7 8 9 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 55 52 49 49 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 10 8 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -7 -21 -23 -12 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 0 6 1 4 -12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -27 14 0 -34 -34 49 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.0 113.5 114.1 114.2 115.1 115.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 3 2 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):338/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -25. -30. -35. -36. -38. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -21. -23. -23. -24. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -18. -27. -45. -59. -71. -82. -88. -94. -97.-100.