* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KRISTY EP122006 09/04/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 38 38 37 36 34 33 32 31 31 30 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 38 38 37 36 34 33 32 31 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 36 36 35 33 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 15 19 18 17 15 17 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 22 21 21 20 16 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 0 2 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 266 260 264 271 281 293 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 139 140 139 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 63 63 60 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 29 28 29 26 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 33 20 0 19 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1006 1031 1067 1104 1168 1289 1514 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.4 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.9 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.2 118.3 118.6 118.9 119.6 121.4 124.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 5 7 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):224/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5.