* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP112006 09/04/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 25 17 21 20 13 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 15 18 15 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -1 -1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 79 81 88 71 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 52 49 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -18 -17 -29 -29 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 -4 4 -4 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -52 -29 -17 22 67 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.5 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.7 113.7 114.1 114.7 115.0 116.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 4 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):338/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -10. -13. -16. -19. -19. -20. -22. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -34. -45. -54. -63. -68. -74. -77. -80.