* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KRISTY EP122006 09/04/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 38 37 33 31 30 29 28 27 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 38 37 33 31 30 29 28 27 26 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 36 35 33 30 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 37 19 20 18 17 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 16 17 6 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 -1 3 5 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 268 255 252 257 266 264 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.0 25.5 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 130 128 128 125 121 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.7 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 55 54 52 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 46 41 42 33 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 32 12 -15 -1 4 -3 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 980 1001 1044 1097 1161 1356 1596 1928 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.5 18.6 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.6 118.9 119.6 120.3 121.1 123.6 127.0 130.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 7 9 15 17 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):224/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.