* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP112006 09/04/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 28 28 27 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 28 25 26 24 16 16 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 17 18 14 12 19 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 2 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 82 81 75 65 105 120 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 10.2 9.5 8.9 8.2 7.6 6.3 5.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 61 60 59 57 56 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 7 8 9 6 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 53 51 49 50 48 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 12 9 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 1 -8 -15 -10 -8 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 2 12 0 5 -7 -29 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -39 -8 -28 -19 -18 4 6 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.5 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.7 30.0 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.2 113.8 114.3 114.1 114.2 114.5 114.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 5 2 2 3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):338/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -26. -30. -35. -36. -38. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. -22. -23. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -18. -27. -45. -62. -77. -88. -96.-103.-106.-109.