* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL072006 09/04/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 50 60 72 84 94 99 103 106 111 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 50 60 72 84 94 99 103 106 111 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 50 59 70 80 86 90 93 97 V (KT) G06R 23 26 33 30 27 31 34 37 45 44 44 43 40 SHEAR (KT) 6 13 7 4 6 8 10 17 19 14 15 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 6 8 3 6 2 SHEAR DIR 50 86 157 180 124 114 56 66 51 35 21 34 351 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 145 140 139 137 136 140 142 146 148 151 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 155 150 134 133 128 125 130 132 135 137 140 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 74 70 70 72 73 71 71 68 67 65 63 57 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 16 16 17 16 17 21 25 26 25 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 28 33 27 27 21 0 5 8 16 26 54 64 88 200 MB DIV 44 47 31 37 45 47 56 50 80 57 43 42 35 LAND (KM) 1647 1554 1262 1276 1343 1355 1399 1417 1374 1274 1145 955 813 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 15.0 14.2 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.3 18.1 19.2 19.7 20.4 21.2 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 40.6 42.5 45.7 46.2 46.6 48.2 49.0 50.2 51.6 53.5 55.0 57.1 59.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 25 18 8 9 8 6 8 9 8 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 9. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 30. 42. 54. 64. 69. 73. 76. 81.