* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FLORENCE AL072006 09/04/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 57 64 71 78 82 85 87 90 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 57 64 71 78 82 85 87 90 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 41 47 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 28 25 26 26 30 33 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 15 21 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 0 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 100 108 91 88 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 134 133 133 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 131 128 127 127 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 69 69 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 26 17 -7 -14 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 84 68 65 46 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1725 1709 1708 1768 1800 1827 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.7 16.3 17.4 18.3 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.0 41.1 41.8 42.3 43.1 46.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 12 13 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):306/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 27. 34. 41. 48. 52. 55. 57. 60.