* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * JOHN EP112006 09/04/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 23 19 17 15 14 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 11 8 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -2 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 86 84 89 79 128 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) N/A N/A 5.2 20.5 19.5 23.5 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) N/A N/A 59 64 59 97 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 6 7 8 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 54 53 51 48 47 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -5 -11 -14 -16 -12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 -8 -5 -9 0 -6 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -28 -31 9 22 62 236 376 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.7 27.8 27.7 28.0 27.2 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 113.9 114.5 115.2 115.6 117.3 118.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 6 5 5 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):338/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -5. -8. -13. -12. -12. -15. -18. -18. -19. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -11. -18. -26. -34. -42. -49. -56. -60. -65. -67. -69.