* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * KRISTY EP122006 09/08/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 38 43 47 49 51 52 54 55 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 38 43 47 49 51 52 54 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 28 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 28 22 21 20 20 19 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 16 17 15 14 22 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 -1 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 48 66 71 60 68 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 135 133 133 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 51 51 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 7 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 62 53 34 26 24 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 51 37 19 13 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2167 2214 2264 2300 2269 2157 1844 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.1 131.5 132.3 133.0 133.7 134.7 138.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 7 5 8 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 27. 29. 30.