* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GORDON AL082006 09/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 97 90 83 72 65 61 57 51 47 41 35 V (KT) LAND 100 101 97 90 83 72 65 61 57 51 47 41 35 V (KT) LGE mod 100 103 99 90 82 70 63 61 62 64 66 65 61 V (KT) G01R 54 41 40 40 36 36 31 27 27 29 27 28 29 SHEAR (KT) 7 23 23 25 27 23 18 8 9 11 10 20 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 2 0 -6 -5 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 98 117 98 97 93 102 92 128 129 134 102 80 80 SST (C) 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.4 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 128 121 116 115 111 112 111 111 113 113 112 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 116 107 101 97 90 92 91 92 95 97 100 91 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.4 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.2 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 10 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 3 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 48 45 43 42 45 49 56 64 60 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 13 14 15 15 16 15 14 13 11 9 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -62 -30 -39 -32 -41 -37 -45 -43 -37 -27 -70 -21 200 MB DIV 23 27 32 50 4 -3 -50 -32 -36 -12 21 13 14 LAND (KM) 1416 1620 1769 1691 1656 1616 1615 1601 1567 1477 1244 970 884 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 29.1 30.3 31.3 31.8 32.2 32.2 32.3 32.6 33.4 35.5 38.2 41.2 LONG(DEG W) 56.7 55.0 54.1 53.2 52.3 51.6 51.7 52.3 52.7 53.1 52.7 50.3 45.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 13 11 8 1 2 2 3 8 13 21 28 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 11/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -18. -28. -38. -46. -52. -55. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -12. -7. -2. 1. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -10. -17. -28. -35. -39. -43. -49. -53. -59. -65.