* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP942006 09/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 29 30 32 34 34 33 31 31 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 29 30 32 34 34 33 31 31 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 26 24 26 23 24 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 17 13 12 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 -2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 235 263 287 292 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.8 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 145 142 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 66 69 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 8 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 14 -8 -6 17 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 72 69 84 92 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1569 1391 1118 947 873 741 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.1 14.2 15.4 16.2 16.6 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.7 119.5 117.1 115.6 115.0 112.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 21 21 12 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):360/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 974 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 6. 7.